The Butler Does It
Well the long college basketball betting season is finally at an end as Butler battles Duke for the National Championship. We'll be turning our attention to baseball betting, along with the NHL and NBA playoffs in the coming weeks. We'll also look to get involved with the back-from-the dead Arena Football league. But for Monday, at least, the big sporting event both for bettors and fans alike is the NCAA basketball final.
In 1988 the great Chuck D of Public Enemy warned a 'nation of millions': 'Don't believe the hype'. He wasn't speaking of college basketball handicapping per se, but its a good place to begin our analysis of this game. Forget all of the BS on the mainstream sports sites. Forget all of the talk about 'Cinderella', about 'David vs. Goliath' and about this being a college redux of the film 'Hoosiers'. That's all lazy sports writer metaphor, and has nothing to do with the task at hand. It's a convenient 'take' on this game but its also dead wrong. Duke certainly has a basketball tradition to rival any school in the country not named 'UCLA', but this vintage Blue Devil squad wasn't really pegged to make it this far. It's not like they were the dominant team at the start of the tournament and steamrolled their competition to get here. When the tournament many felt they were the least likely of the #1 seeds to make the finals. Certainly they weren't as obvious a choice as a brutally talented Kentucky team, or the hot shooting Syracause Orange. A lot of pundits thought that Kansas had the easiest bracket, though Northern Iowa dispelled that notion. Some even thought that a dangerous #2 seed like Ohio State or Villanova had a better shot of making the finals. This is no dis to Duke-they did what they had to do and here they are, but the notion that they're a 'Goliath' isn't quite accurate.
Nor is Butler a group of wide eyed bumpkins that have been playing beyond their abilities, upsetting teams to earn an improbable shot at the national championship. Let's not forget that they began this tournament as a #5, which many (myself included) thought was too low particularly relative to the other teams in their bracket. Everyone that follows college hoops knew that Butler was a scary good and very dangerous team. Did anyone think they'd be playing their best basketball of the season and make it this far? Definitely not, but its not like it was a completely unfathomable scenario like an Arkansas-Pine Bluff run to the finals.
So to handicap this game properly you've got to forget about all of the mainstream sports media hype, forget about the team names on the jerseys and focus on this game and this game only. Certainly you can make the case that Duke has an advantage since they've 'been here before', but last I checked Carlos Boozer, Grant Hill, Bobby Hurley, Christian Laetner and the other great Blue Devils that built the tradition weren't in the lineup.
NCAA BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP-DUKE VS. BUTLER:
After being priced correctly in their Final Four game against Michigan State, its shocking that Butler is getting so little respect in this game. The game open with Duke a -6' point favorite and they've been bet up to -7 or -7'. Keep in mind that this game is being played on a theoretically 'neutral court' at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, but it just so happens to be Butler's home town. And lest we forget, Indianapolis is also the 'home town' of the NCAA itself as they're headquartered there. So while the stadium is an unfamiliar venue for both teams, for all intents and purposes this is a Butler home game. So factoring in at least a partial ‘home court advantage' we're expected to believe that Duke should be favored here by more than any team they faced with the exception #16 seed Arkansas Pine Bluff in the first round?
This line is clearly shaded for all of the 'public' money that comes in on this event. The average square will see the matchup, figure that he's heard of only one of the two teams and bet accordingly. To be sure, Duke was a much better pointspread team this season-the Blue Devils have gone 23-14 ATS while Butler is only 17-20 ATS. And, of course, once the ball is tossed for the opening tip off anything can happen. Nevertheless, there's no way to justify Duke as such a hefty favorite and Butler represents a great value as a contrarian play if nothing else.
There's much to suggest, however, that Butler is the better basketball team of the two. Tactically, its not a good matchup for Duke. The Blue Devils' strength is their solid outside shooting-particularly from 3 point range-and their consistency at the free throw line. They like to feed off of turnovers for easy buckets, and their offensive efficiency is at its best against a zone defense. But against Butler almost all of their advantages are neutralized. Butler is very good at playing half court man to man defense, and since they're not playing against a zone Duke won't get as many open looks from 3 point range. Butler also doesn't turn the ball over-they've the best in the nation at taking care of the ball.
Forget the fact that this is Butler's first National Championship appearance. If any sort of confidence issues were going to appear they would have shown up by now. Butler knows they can compete with-and beat-any team in the country. They've already beaten teams with a more efficient offense, with a more physical lineup, with a better defense, with better athletes. They've certainly beaten teams with better individual talent. With all due respect to Duke there's nothing to suggest that they bring anything to the table that Syracuse, Kansas State or Michigan State did not.
I'm very tempted to take Butler on the moneyline at +285, but the points are such a gift they're hard to pass up. We'll also play this game Under the total. The public likes 'Overs' so going under in a 'public' event like the NCAA Finals is a good idea, and Butler should be able to control tempo and keep the score low.
PLAY BUTLER +7' OVER DUKE
PLAY BUTLER/DUKE UNDER 129
(c)2009 SportsUntapped.com
Elite Eight College Basketball Betting Preview (Saturday)Sports Interaction's Al Dannity breaks down Saturday's Elite Eight College Basketball betting preview match-ups in the NCAA tournament.
Mid Major Mania will continue into the Final Four as Butler will upset the Kansas State Wildcats in Salt Lake City on Saturday. The Bulldogs are a major conference quality team playing in a league nobody watches and until Thursday night they weren't getting respect. Beating Syracuse isn't enough for Butler, most Mid-Majors will be happy with One Shining Moment but the Bulldogs want a bigger bite. They have Final Four intentions and won't let the win go to their head. They hung with the Orange for the whole game, forcing 18 turnovers and enter this game knowing that win will bring them to a Final Four in their hometown of Indianapolis.
For K-State reaching the Elite Eight is huge but the favorite's tag has weighed heavy on the Wildcats in this tournament. Kansas State looked impressive on the opening weekend of the tournament but it took double overtime to outduel the Musketeers of Xavier on Thursday in Salt Lake City. Wildcats don't have nine lives and they'll learn that the hard way on Saturday.
Where one pack of Wildcats falls another will rise. After weeks of doubting their ability to make the Final Four I am finally on the Kentucky bandwagon after the Wildcats ripped Cornell to shreds on Thursday. John Wall is on a mission to show youth can trump experience and the worrying thing for Kentucky's opponents is that he's got plenty of help. Against a Big Red team big on experience, it was Wall who stood tall with 8 points 8 rebounds and 7 assists while DeMarcus Cousins chipped in with 16 points and Patrick Patterson had 12 rebounds. This is team that can spread the workload across the court and beat opponents in multiple ways. It doesn't matter what look they get, the Wildcats will find a way to unlock any defense.
They won't have it easy against West Virginia who tamed the Washington Huskies in the Sweet Sixteen with a 13 point win. On Saturday however the Mountaineers will face an obstacle to great to overcome. Even with Darrell Bryant healthy this would have been a tough game for WVU, with him out of action it's hard to believe the Mountaineers can climb all the way to Indianapolis.
gambling911.com
NCAA Tournament great scouting for the NBA Draft
The NBA Draft is just around the corner and for the NBA odds fans that means it's time to take note. The NBA draft is a brief affair in terms of professional sports drafts and after two quick rounds it's all over. That's why it's important for basketball betting fans to follow the action closely and one of the best ways to scout for draft is by watching the greatest sports betting spectacle on earth: the NCAA tournament.
People that enjoy betting NBA games will find their fill of basketball betting action during the tournament and many of the players they watch in March will be playing for teams featured in the NBA odds come November.
March Madness Betting
But what really makes the NCAA tourney such a great sports betting event and such a great forum for scouting future talent to be featured in the NBA odds action is the pressure. Betting NBA games can be a bit dull at times during the regular season as there seems to be no sense of urgency. But the NCAA tournament is nothing but urgency and the best players always step up when the basketball betting pressure is at its peak.
Obviously when trying handicap the top talent you've got to look at the player's entire body of work during the regular season and over an entire college basketball betting career. But there is no better microcosm of all this than the Tournament.
With the entire world watching, from casual fans to serious NBA odds experts, the spotlight is on these college players and some step up their game and others shrivel. And it's that massive college basketball betting stage that can make or break a player's NBA draft dreams.
nbahoopsbetting.com
Big East Previews
Ranked No. 3 in the nation and seeded No. 1 in the Big East championship tournament, the Syracuse Orange had a minor setback on their road to March Madness.
Syracuse lost yesterday in the quarterfinals of the conference tournament to the eight-seed Georgetown Hoyas, who won 91-84. They covered, as online sportsbooks had them as 6-point favorites.
The Orange suffered even more, as C/F Arinze Onuaku went down with what looked to be a right knee injury.
Syracuse head coach Jim Boeheim said that Onuaku has a strain and will have an MRI; he did not return to the game.
In the meantime, the Georgetown Hoyas will prep for Friday's semifinal game against the Marquette Golden Eagles.
The Golden Eagles are 11-2 straight up and 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall.
While the No. 3 Orange dropped out of their respective conference tournament, the No. 1 team in college basketball and top-seed in the Big 12 conference championship, the Kansas Jayhawks, are still alive and kicking.
The Jayhawks were big 17.5-point favorites for their matchup against the Texas Tech Red Raiders yesterday.
While they were able to beat Texas Tech 80-68, the Jayhawks were unable to cover the big spread.
The consensus No. 1 will gear up for a game against the No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies on Friday.
Kansas has been a study in contrast when it comes to SU and ATS records; the Jayhawks are a sparkling 11-1 SU in their last 12 overall but only 3-9 against the number.
The Aggies have been solid across the board in their last 11, going 9-2 SU and 10-1 ATS and their last eight games, there have been 2 Overs and 6 Unders.
Texas A&M defeated the Nebraska Cornhuskers 70-64 in the two teams' Big 12 matchup yesterday but the Aggies failed to cover as 7.5-point faves.
The Jayhawks have the edge over the Aggies in their last 15 meetings, with a record of 14-1 SU and while the Kansas Jayhawks also have an ATS edge at 10-5, they have been more hit and miss in their last eight Texas A&M matchups, going 3-5 ATS in that time.
The Purdue Boilermakers are fifth-ranked in the nation and the second seed in the Big Ten despite losing forward Robbie Hummel to a torn right ACL in late-February.
The Boilermakers make their debut in the conference tournament on Friday with a date with the Northwestern Wildcats.
In Purdue's last 12 games, there have been 3 Overs and 9 Unders and in the Boilermakers last eight games against Northwestern, there have been 6 Overs and 2 Unders.
The conference tournaments are good but everyone eagerly awaits the Big Dance.
Enjoy your weekend.
(c)1999-2009 TheSpread.com Inc
Saturday's College Basketball Scores
EAST
Columbia 65, Brown 56
Cornell 79, Yale 59
Georgetown 74, Cincinnati 47
Massachusetts 69, Rhode Island 67
Penn 78, Dartmouth 68
Pittsburgh 83, Rutgers 54
Princeton 54, Harvard 51
Purdue 64, Penn St. 60
Saint Joseph's 74, La Salle 59
Seton Hall 92, Providence 80
Temple 70, George Washington 57
West Virginia 68, Villanova 66, OT
SOUTH
Alabama 73, Auburn 61
M 81, Grambling St. 60
Alcorn St. 69, Prairie View 67
Cent. Arkansas 76, McNeese St. 72
Duke 82, North Carolina 50
Florida St. 61, Miami 60
Jackson St. 60, Alabama St. 59
LSU 50, Georgia 48
Louisville 78, Syracuse 68
Maryland 74, Virginia 68
Memphis 75, Tulsa 53
Nicholls St. 73, Lamar 61
Richmond 89, Charlotte 84, OT
SE Louisiana 86, Northwestern St. 77
South Carolina 77, Vanderbilt 73
South Florida 75, Connecticut 68
Southern Miss. 75, East Carolina 65
Tennessee 75, Mississippi St. 59
Texas Southern 66, Southern U. 62
Tulane 79, Houston 76
ia Tech 88, Georgia Tech 82
MIDWEST
Chicago St. 81, N.J. Tech 75
Indiana 88, Northwestern 80, OT
Iowa St. 85, Kansas St. 82, OT
Kansas 77, Missouri 56
Notre Dame 63, Marquette 60, OT
Saint Louis 71, Dayton 66
South Dakota 97, Houston Baptist 84
Texas-Pan American 71, North Dakota 68
Xavier 93, St. Bonaventure 72
SOUTHWEST
BYU 107, TCU 77
Baylor 92, Texas 77
Marshall 73, SMU 57
Mississippi 68, Arkansas 66
Oklahoma St. 74, Nebraska 55
M 69, Oklahoma 54
M-Corpus Christi 82, Texas-Arlington 79
Texas St. 101, Sam Houston St. 97, OT
UCF 66, Rice 59
UTEP 52, UAB 50
UTSA 65, Stephen F.Austin 63
FAR WEST
Arizona 86, Southern Cal 84, 2OT
Arizona St. 56, UCLA 46
Boise St. 85, San Jose St. 56
California 71, Stanford 61
Colorado 101, Texas Tech 90
Colorado St. 76, Utah 67
Idaho 78, Hawaii 69
Nevada 79, Louisiana Tech 68
Oregon 74, Washington St. 66
Pacific 66, CS Northridge 47
San Diego St. 61, Air Force 42
Seattle 74, Utah Valley 64
UC Davis 92, Cal St.-Fullerton 86, OT
UC Irvine 91, Cal Poly 84, OT
UNLV 74, Wyoming 56
Utah St. 81, New Mexico St. 63
Washington 82, Oregon St. 70
TOURNAMENT
America East Conference
First Round
U. 87, Hartford 46
New Hampshire 68, Maine 57
Stony Brook 68, Albany, N.Y. 59
Vermont 76, UMBC 59
Atlantic Sun Conference
Championship
ETSU 72, Mercer 66
Big Sky Conference
First Round
Montana 81, N. Arizona 60
Portland St. 68, Montana St. 65
Big South Conference
Championship
Winthrop 64, Coastal Carolina 53
Central Atlantic Collegiate
Championship
Felician 84, Goldey Beacom 79
Colonial Athletic Association
Quarterfinals
Northeastern 74, Hofstra 71, 2OT
Old Dominion 86, Towson 56
Va. Commonwealth 75, George Mason 60
Mary 70, James Madison 65
ECAC Metro Region Tournament
Semifinals
Baruch 88, Old Westbury 81
York, N.Y. 68, NYU 61
GLIAC Tournament
Championship
Findlay 79, Hillsdale 66
Horizon League
Semifinals
Butler 68, Wis.-Milwaukee 59
Wright St. 69, Detroit 50
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference
Quarterfinals
Fairfield 67, Canisius 57
Niagara 68, Iona 64
Rider 69, St. Peter's 57
Siena 78, Manhattan 61
MidSouth Conference Tournament
Semifinals
Campbellsville 68, St. Catherine 62
Georgetown, Ky. 82, Cumberlands 64
Missouri Valley Conference
Semifinals
N. Iowa 57, Bradley 40
Wichita St. 65, Illinois St. 61
NCAA Division III
Second Round
Brandeis 66, St. John Fisher 52
Carthage 76, Anderson, Ind. 58
DeSales 82, Albertus Magnus 49
E. Mennonite 85, Wilmington, Ohio 71
Marshall 73, Merchant Marine 64
Guilford 85, John Carroll 82
Illinois Wesleyan 75, Washington, Mo. 70
Randolph-Macon 70, Clark U. 60
Rhode Island Coll. 75, Middlebury 59
St. Mary's, Md. 72, Va. Wesleyan 69
Texas-Dallas 63, Wheaton, Ill. 62
Utica Tech 64, Medaille 63
Whitworth 77, Chapman 56
Williams 83, Maine-Farmington 64
Wis.-Stevens Pt. 63, St. Norbert 48
Wooster 87, Wis.-Whitewater 78
NSIC Tournament
Semifinals
SW Minnesota St. 81, Winona St. 67
St. Cloud St. 74, Wayne, Neb. 66
Ohio Valley Conference
Championship
Murray St. 62, Morehead St. 51
SAC Tournament
Semifinals
Brevard 73, Carson-Newman 72
Catawba 70, Lincoln Memorial 60
Sooner Athletic Conference
Championship
John Brown 73, Lubbock Christian 58
Southern Conference
Quarterfinals
Appalachian St. 71, The Citadel 61
Coll. of Charleston 96, Chattanooga 69
W. Carolina 68, Elon 57
Wofford 59, UNC Greensboro 47
Summit League
First Round
IUPUI 77, W. Illinois 68
Oakland, Mich. 85, UMKC 70
Sun Belt Conference
First Round
Arkansas St. 89, Ark.-Little Rock 82, OT
Denver 71, Fla. International 64
Louisiana-Monroe 76, Louisiana-Lafayette 75
South Alabama 52, Florida Atlantic 51
W. Kentucky 83, New Orleans 58
TSAC Tournament
Semifinals
Freed-Hardeman 98, Mid-Continent 91
Union, Tenn. 75, Cumberland, Tenn. 67
West Coast Conference
Second Round
Loyola Marymount 84, San Francisco 76
Portland 72, San Diego 57
(c)1999-2009 TheSpread.com Inc
College Basketball Betting Free Picks For Monday: WAC AttackThankfully, the Winter Olympics have ended and we're about to get into one of the best times of the year for sports betting enthusiasts. The NHL will get back to work on Tuesday, exhibition baseball will start on Tuesday and the NBA and college hoops will be in full gear. NASCAR is underway, we've still got some league soccer action in Europe and the World Cup this summer - which may be the biggest betting event in history. We'll even have Arena Football again starting in early April. Throw in all of the Triple Crown prep races and the long awaited showdown between Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta at the Apple Blossom Stakes in early April and its an epic time for sports betting.
Short slate of college hoops action for Monday, but we've got an interesting position on a crucial WAC showdown between the Utah State Aggies and the Fresno State Bulldogs. The Bulldogs are a far cry from the team they were under Jerry Tarkanian, though we like current coach Steve Cleveland. Cleveland hasn't exactly worked wonders in Fresno,though after his miracle work in rescuing the BYU program from the toilet in which former coach Roger Reid left it he's got our respect. BYU went 1-25 the year before Cleveland took over, and within three years they were back in the Mountain West Finals.
FRESNO STATE VS. UTAH STATE
Typically, we don't like to lay a lot of points in college hoops - or any sport for that matter - but this is a very important game for the host Utah State Aggies. A win over Fresno will get them at least a share of the WAC championship for the third straight year. Utah State leads New Mexico State by one game in the standings, and NMSU has a tough road test against a good Nevada team on Wednesday. Assuming Utah State beats Fresno, a Wolfpack win will give USU the title outright. If not, Utah State will host New Mexico State on Friday night (ironically, both teams are called the 'Aggies'). Utah State is trying to pile up the wins hoping they'll get an 'at large' bid to the NCAA tournament if they don't get an automatic bid by winning the WAC tourney.
Fresno has at least one good player, a guy named Paul George who is a 6'8" swingman with a good shot at the NBA. The problem is that the Bulldogs don't play well as a team and the more George tries to take over the game the worse things will get for them against the defensively nasty Aggies. George was injured early in the first meeting between the teams this year, a 26 point Utah State rout in Fresno back in late January.
Utah State is a very good pointspread team, and particularly on their home court in Logan, Utah. They're 15-1 SU/9-4 ATS on their own court, and have also done well covering big numbers this year. Aggies are 6-2 ATS as a home favorite of 12' plus points, and 3-1 ATS as a favorite of 15' plus points. George's presence won't be enough to make up 26 points against a focused and far superior Utah State team. Look for a rout here and one that should cover this big number.
PLAY UTAH STATE -15 OVER FRESNO STATE
(c)2009 SportsUntapped.com
Disappointing Louisville Cardinals visit Syracuse
The Louisville Cardinals are currently on the NCAA Tournament bubble, and there are rumors swirling that Rick Pitino is considering a return to the NBA to coach the New Jersey Nets. With this backdrop, the Cards try and keep their tournament hopes alive Sunday when they visit the Syracuse Orange at 1:00 pm ET on ESPN. The Orange still have just one loss all year and are hoping to secure one of the four top seeds.
Bracketologists of the world, unite. The NCAA men's basketball Tournament is drawing ever closer, which means we're on the verge of getting buried under an avalanche of office pool brackets for March Madness.
Which conference will earn the most bids? Will the Notre Dame Fighting Irish get in off the bubble? And will it be Oakland or IUPUI coming out of the Summit League? Inquiring bettors want to know.
The SEC looks like it'll be stuck with just a handful of bids, but at least they're not the worst of the six major conferences this year (hello, Pac-10). The Big East, on the other hand, is bloated with big-name programs and likely to send 6-8 teams to the Big Dance. All four of the following teams should get in - although we're a little worried about Louisville these days.
No. 12 Tennessee at No. 2 Kentucky
Saturday, 9:00 p.m. (ET) - ESPN
The SEC got a big shot in the arm when John Calipari left Memphis behind and took over the Kentucky Wildcats (23-1 SU, 11-11 ATS). The Wildcats are an easy choice for a No. 1 Tournament seed at this point; they're No. 3 in the AP rankings and No. 7 in team efficiency according to Ken Pomeroy.
But when it comes to value, there's not much there - especially at Rupp Arena, where the 'Cats are 16-0 SU and 6-8 ATS this year.
Down the I-75 in Knoxville, the Volunteers (18-5 SU, 9-10-1 ATS) are No. 12 in the rankings, but in danger of dropping like a stone after losing 90-71 at Vanderbilt (-3). That leaves Tennessee at 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS heading into their toughest matchup of the SEC schedule. The Vols are No. 28 on the efficiency charts with just the No. 74-ranked offense, driving the 'under' to a tasty 11-5 record.
This will be the first time these two clubs have met this season. The timing could have been worse for the Volunteers, who are playing rather well considering they dismissed Tyler Smith (17.4 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.4 assists per game last year) and suspended three others following a Jan. 1 traffic stop that led to drug, alcohol, and firearms charges. All three suspensions have now been lifted with the return of back-up center Brian Williams (5.1 rebounds in 15.5 minutes per game) on Tuesday against the Commodores. There may some value with the Vols when the early betting odds are released on Friday.
Louisville at No. 3 Syracuse
Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (ET) - ESPN
Rick Pitino took Kentucky to the Final Four three times (with a national championship in 1995-96), went to the NBA, then returned to the college ranks with UK's bitter in-state rivals from Louisville. Sure enough, the Cardinals made the Final Four in 2005.
But this year's team is missing that certain something at 15-8 SU and 7-11 ATS heading into Thursday's action. The Cards are just 3-4 SU (2-5 ATS) in their last seven, and rumors have been circulating that Pitino is interested in returning to the NBA to coach the New Jersey Nets.
Pitino has squashed those rumors in the press, but he might feel differently if his team gets squashed by the Syracuse Orange (24-1 SU, 15-6 ATS), another of Pitino's former employers. The Orange are poised to grab one of those four No. 1 Tournament seeds; they're No. 2 on the AP rankings and No. 3 on the efficiency charts. Syracuse has won 11 in a row at 8-3 ATS, and Jim Boeheim's 2-3 zone defense has the 'under' at 9-2 during this hot streak.
This is also the first Louisville-Syracuse game of the year. The Cards are actually playing very good basketball at No. 23 in team efficiency, but they don't have the requisite zone-busting outside shooters at just 32.9 percent from long range.
Syracuse scores and defends well almost everywhere on the floor - except at the charity stripe, where that 65.9-percent success rate (No. 255 out of 347 Division I teams) is going to cost the Orange someday. Perhaps this will be the day.
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